Snow looking more likely for Saturday

Predicting snow at this time of the year is always a battle between the climatological and meteorological factors. While this storm looks good for snow, and most models are showing a few inches, it's October in D.C. Snow is extremely rare at this time of the year. The models often show storms days out which then disappear or change, and a few days ago, this potential storm was thought to be just that, a random blip that would soon correct itself to fit in with the cimatological norms. However, as we are getting closer to the event, it is becoming more evident that this storm could be the real deal.

Right now I would go with 1-2 inches in most places with maybe 3 up north near Damascus as the most likely scenario. This will be a really heavy and wet snow that doesn't stick to the ground at first and may be mixed in with intermittent rain. As always, the forecast is subject to change change, and could put us in the bullseye, giving us up to 4 inches of snow, or do the opposite, move out to sea, barely giving us anything.

Fall Snow?

After our second hottest summer in recorded history, we are finally looking at the possibility of snow. While October would be a remarkably early time to see snow, there is definitely a shot. A storm is riding up the coast taking a track that would guarantee us at least a few inches of snow in a colder month. However, it's October, and snow is incredibly hard to come by, and rightly so. There are more hours of daylight, the ground temperatures are warmer, and the sun is at a higher angle in the sky. For a snow this early, a "perfect" storm is needed.

While precipitation is looking likely for early Saturday morning at this point, the storm will most likely travel too far off the coast, resulting in a cold light rain, possibly mixed in with snow that will melt on contact with the ground. However, the storm could possibly track further inland, creating heavier precipitation that will cool the atmosphere and could result in some minor accumulating snow, possibly up to an inch. However, this snow would not stick for long and quickly melt as it gets hotter during the day. And just as easily, the storm could go out to sea leaving us high and dry.

Even though it would be nice to see some flakes, that's the only redeeming quality about this event that will in all probability just be a miserable and cold rain. If you are really looking forward to snow, this storm is bound to disappoint. Try and wait until December if you want a significant storm and try to enjoy the crisp temperatures of fall while you still can, instead of getting excited over snow.

tl;dr: There is going to be some rain early Saturday morning, snow could possibly be mixed in, but would not accumulate.