Thunderstorms Today

Although snow is unlikely for the rest of the year, I'll still post updates on extreme weather. Today, there is a fairly high chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon that could be severe. It will be windy and intense, but not bad enough to cause mass blackouts. Thunderstorms are hard to really predict in the future, as they are fairly spontaneous, but the environmental conditions suggest they are very likely, but its possible that you will get just clouds while a friend 10 miles from you is getting heavy hail. That said, be ready for a shift from snowstorms to thunderstorms.

Snow On Track For Tonight 10 PM Update

Sleet is spreading across the region now and the precipitation is moving south. My forecast totals aren't changing, and 4-8 inches is still likely. In the next hour or so, sleet will change to snow from the north and the snow will continue overnight. The snow will taper off in the morning hours and it will be very cold tomorrow and tomorrow night. Schools will most likely be closed tomorrow, so but set your alarm early just in case! The official odds are 85% chance of closure with 15 % chance of delay.

Significant Snow to Arrive Tonight

A storm is currently forming in the Midwest and will affect the area tonight. It will likely start as a light drizzle and turn to sleet quickly. Then at around 11 pm, it will turn to all snow, earlier as you go north. The snow will continue overnight, heavy at times, until it tapers off in the morning. The totals will range from 4-8 inches throughout the county, with the higher amounts north near Damascus. There is currently a Winter Storm Waring, and due to the perfect timing at night, school is very unlikely. I'd say MCPS has a 85% chance of closure and a 15% chance of a delay. Since this is going to be a major event, I'll post a later update at around 11 o'clock.

Moderate Snow Likely Monday Night

After waffling all day yesterday, the models have seem to come to a consensus on the storm, and that consensus suggests a sizable snowfall. While not as intense as our storm about a month ago, this storm could still have a significant impact, as it will happen overnight until rush hour. Even though highs could get to the mid 50's tomorrow, temps will plummet as the precipitation arrives, so the storm will start as light rain, transfer to sleet and finally to snow for most of the precipitation. While it is still a while away, so things could change, it is unlikely that this will be a total bust. In Montgomery county, I'd expect 3-5 inches with more towards Damascus and less near Chevy Chase. Schools could be closed due to the timing of the storm, so stay tuned for more info.

Chance of Snow Monday/Tuesday?

Enjoy the great weather while it lasts as we might have another snowstorm next week! Details are hazy as it is still 5 days out but it is likely a storm will track near us and temps will be cold enough for at least a changeover to snow. Some models show up to 10 inches while others show only an inch so anything could still happen. Enjoy these 70 degree days but remember it's the middle of February so there is still a chance for snow. As the event gets closer, I will post more updates so stay tuned!

GFS for Tuesday morning, showing a major snowstorm

Update: Light Snow to Continue Overnight

Currently, the radar is intensifying around us and most people already have a dusting. This extremely light snow could briefly become a bit heavier, as a light-moderate band comes through until 11. While it still won't be anything significant, we could eke out an inch overnight. School odds: 24.9% chance of a delay, .1% chance of closure, and 75% chance of a normal school day.

Snow Tonight Looking More Likely, Still Minor

The precipitation over the central US is currently stronger than anticipated and further north too. While this storm dropped over a foot on parts of Arkansas, it will be weaker once it arrives here, and will only skirt us. The air will be very cold, so any snow that falls will be light and fluffy, unlike the wet snow that we got earlier this year. In addition, we have very dry air, so some snow that shows on the radar may just evaporate in midair. While our chance for a dusting has increased, it's still extremely unlikely that we will get enough snow for even a delay. If anything changes, for better or worse, I will post an update tonight.

Snow Possible Tomorrow Night, Flurries or a Dusting At Most

Wednesday Night Forecast

So, the models have trended somewhat north, which is good for our snow chances. Also, the low pressure in Texas is stronger than anticipated which is good. However, despite these improvements, accumulating snow is still extremely unlikely. My odds are 50% chance of nothing, 25% chance of flurries, 20% chance of dusting, and 5% chance of 1/2 inch+. As you can see this storm doesn't really have much potential, but a nuisance dusting could await us Thursday morning.

Long Range Forecast

From Thursday to Saturday we will have some cold weather, with lows going down to the teens and highs in the low to mid 30's. Next week will start with some warmer air, possibly reaching 50 degrees. After tomorrow night, there are no snowfall possibilities in the next week, but it could get colder towards the end of the month, and since it's early February, we still have a chance of at least a snowstorm or two to track later in the month.

Storm Tonight Looking Extremely Minor, Thursday Storm on Life Support

Tonight, we could see a little snow or rain, but either way it will be a non-event.

Thursday things get a little more interesting with a storm coming up the Atlantic coast. However, as of now, accumulating snow is unlikely as it seems the storm is going to go out to sea. Since that's still 3 days away though, there is a chance, albeit small, that this storm could shift north. But right now, it looks as if it will just be flurries.

The storm going out to sea, as predicted by the most recent GFS forecasting model.

Image Source: Capitalweathergang and Raleigh Weather.

Never Forget

At this time last year, Snowmageddon was winding down. Here's an epic radar to help relive it.

Two Storms to Follow

Next week 2 storms are coming. One will likely happen Monday night and one around Thursday. Right now, the temperature looks to be too high for any decent snowfall Monday night. Yesterday, a few models were showing a potentially significant storm for Thursday. However, it looks more likely that the storm will just go out to sea at this point. However, since it is still 4 days away, a lot could change, so don't give up on it yet.