Sandy Departing Area; Storm Recap

Sandy is leaving the area and the worst of the storm is over.  While the effects in the D.C. area are moderate, they are nowhere near the destruction in New York City.  There, gusts of up to 80 mph combined with a record storm surge lead to effects far greater than those seen in DC.  The subway flooded,  Lower Manhattan lost power, and FDR drive was inundated.

What was different here?  Mainly the storm surge.  Most of the damage in NYC was widespread flooding caused by the rising levels of the East River.  Manhattan is an island, DC isn't.  While the winds were stronger in NYC, the DC winds were only slightly overestimated, as widespread gusts were reported to reach or exceed 60 mph, including a 76 mph gust in Laytonsville, Montgomery County. The rains here were more significant than NYC, with 4-7 inches of rain being the norm throughout the area.  That said, the flooding from a 13 FOOT storm surge is much greater than that from 7 inches of rain.

So, where was all the destruction? Why wasn't this like the derecho? A combination of factors.  Firstly, the worst of the storm happened at around midnight, when most people were asleep. But, the main reason was actually because of the derecho. The summer storm already knocked down any loose limbs and weak trees, leaving few easy targets for Sandy.  In addition, the massive repairs after the derecho strengthened the power grid.  With this storm happening in late fall, there were fewer leaves on trees to pick up the gusts.  Just as a windmill with one small blade wouldn't spin as much, trees with fewer leaves will be less likely to fall due to wind.
While many in the DC area will view this storm as underperforming and forgettable, I'll chalk it up as a victory for PEPCO here, and in the Tri-State New York area, it will take time to heal from this disaster.

Sandy's Effects Starting to Ramp Up

Despite some premature calls that Sandy is merely a "breezy rainstorm", things are going to get serious overnight.  Winds that have been sustained at around 30 mph will almost double to around 55 mph, and gusts around 45 mph will approach 75.  Rains will intensify and be blown sideways by the wind Sandy is still over the sea, and will soon make landfall near Cape May, NJ, or the Delaware coast.  At this point, the location landfall doesn't matter, as the storm will trek west and park itself over the Mason-Dixon line, whipping us with intense winds all night.

The strong winds and rains will slowly decrease in the morning and could change to wet flurries as they depart.  However, the strong winds tonight are not something to be trifled with.  Stay inside; trees WILL fall, branches WILL turn into projectiles; and power lines WILL  snap.  I doubt that there will be school on Wednesday, and possibly even Thursday,  however, this will be largely dependent on power outages and other damage. I will try to post tomorrow with a recap of the storm, but that seems unlikely due to PEPCO.

Hurricane Sandy on Track to Bring Severe Winds and Rains to Area

Sandy is churning up the East Coast, and starting to interact with the coming cold front to create a huge storm, with tropical storm force winds expanding up to 500 miles from the center.

I am standing with my last forecast, as Sandy will likely take the track I called for earlier, except a tad north, making landfall in southern New Jersey, rather than the Delaware Bay.  This will lead to sustained winds of around 50 mph, with gusts up to 70.  The damage will be massive, with winds on the scale of our summer derecho, lasting from Sunday afternoon until things finally start to clear out midday Tuesday. At the end of this, we could see anywhere from 5-10 inches of rain, enough for some major flooding.

The most significant effects of the storm will be felt in NYC, where a significant storm surge could lead to major flooding downtown, worse than Irene last year.

Even though we seem to have avoided the track up the Delmarva, which would have lead to all hell breaking loose, this will still be a huge storm, enough to shut down schools and power for days.

Hurricane Sandy Taking Aim At DC

A storm's a'brewing.  A category 2 hurricane over the Bahamas, Sandy will make landfall on the East Coast of the United States.  The last time a tropical cyclone phased with a Nor'easter like this, it was "The Perfect Storm" of 1991.  Call Sandy the Perfect-er Storm then, as she has the potential to make history.

At this point major impacts for the DC area are highly likely, as Sandy is a huge storm, with tropical storm force winds (39+) extending hundreds of miles from the center.   At this point, Sandy seems likely to head north until making landfall near the Delaware Bay and jogging west from there.  This will lead to extended periods of heavy rain and high sustained winds of 50-60 mph with gusts up to 80.  While our last two major tropical encounters, Irene and Isabel, were relatively quick,  Sandy will affect the area for about two days, starting with the outer bands reaching us during the day Sunday.  The storm will ramp up and be at its worst Sunday night into Monday, with winds howling, leading to widespread power outages. The intensity will start to lessen into the night, and the storm should largely depart Tuesday, with massive destruction it its wake.  With winds comparable to if not exceeding Isabel, for a longer period of time, the destruction could potentially eclipse the summer derecho, and lead to school cancellations.  To exit on a more peaceful note, Sandy will bring an extremely cold pocket of arctic air and leave a few departing flurries Tuesday night.

However, this storm is still three days away, and has the potential to go in two directions. Sandy could stay further out to sea and make landfall in Long Island, leading to much less intense of  a storm here, as the winds would peak at around 35-40 mph, and last much shorter.  This would lead to effects on the scale of Irene, with significant but not devastating power outages, and a quick return to normalcy.
On the other hand, the storm could go further west than expected, tracking up the Chesapeake.  This would be a disastrous scenario for the area, as we would experience sustained hurricane force winds with gusts approaching and potentially exceeding 100 mph, the likes of which this area has never experienced.

As the storm approaches, the track will become less fuzzy, and I'll be better able to asses the potential impact on the area and school closings.  As of now, I would say there's about a 70% chance that school is canceled Monday, but don't start cheering because you'll have more time to work on your college apps- your power will probably be out.